Connecting the End of the War in Afghanistan and the Situation on the Korean Peninsula

YIKUS Issue Brief No. 150

Bong Young Sik (Research Fellow, Institute for Unification Studies, Yonsei University)

At 11:59 p.m. local time on August 30, 2021, the last U.S. C-17 transport aircraft departed from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. With this, the United States officially ended the longest war in its history—the Afghanistan War—in accordance with President Joe Biden's full withdrawal deadline announced on July 8, 2021. The Afghanistan War, which began in October 2001 as Operation Enduring Freedom in retaliation for the 9/11 al-Qaeda terrorist attacks, is coming to an end after 20 years with the victory of the Taliban and the defeat of the United States. In a statement, President Biden declared, “Over the past 17 days, the United States military has evacuated more than 120,000 American and allied civilians in the largest airlift operation in American history,” and “Our 20-year military presence in Afghanistan is over.” The photo of Major General Chris Donahue, commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, released by the U.S. Department of Defense on August 31 with the title, “The last American soldier to leave Afghanistan,” is an image that is hard to believe given the ‘image’ of the United States as a superpower.

Although the war in Afghanistan has ended, the geopolitical and security lessons and implications that remain cannot be fully summarized in the simple phrase of "a U.S. defeat and a Taliban victory." Especially considering the denuclearization and reunification of the Korean Peninsula as a national priority, and the serious security reality involving the ROK-U.S. alliance and U.S.-China hegemony competition, an accurate understanding and analysis of the Afghanistan War is essential to appropriately respond to South Korea's security environment. This issue brief seeks to address the following two questions regarding the war and its end: First, was America's war in Afghanistan Ultimately a Fiasco? Second, will the United States reduce or abandon its security commitments and alliances after the war?

In particular, how likely is it that the United States will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula? Was America’s war in Afghanistan Ultimately a Disaster? To evaluate whether Operation Enduring Freedom was a success or failure, one must assess the core objectives of the operation. Over the past 20 years, the U.S. continued its war with the Taliban in Afghanistan at great cost and sacrifice. During this period, 2,448 American soldiers died, 20,722 were wounded, 770,000 participated, and over $1 trillion was spent on the war. In addition, the U.S. failed to curb China’s rise and suffered a major blow to its international credibility and image.

There is no doubt that the US war in Afghanistan was a failure, but it is necessary to evaluate the war by dividing it into the early and late stages. When the George W. Bush administration began the war in Afghanistan in October 2001, the primary goal of the war was to eliminate the Al Qaeda strongholds, the masterminds of 9/11, and arrest related terrorists. The Bush administration began the war when the Taliban refused the US demand to hand over Al Qaeda forces. In the early stages of the war, the Taliban regime collapsed, and Al Qaeda and other international terrorist groups lost their major strongholds, and thereafter entered a process of collapse. After a 10-year pursuit, the Obama administration eliminated Osama bin Laden in May 2011. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, public opinion in the US strongly supported the Afghan war as a necessary use of force and a just war, and this public opinion continued. The target of anti-war public opinion in the US was always the Iraq War, not the Afghan War. Public opinion on ending the war in Afghanistan began to grow as the US government pursued a new, expanded goal of building a modern Afghan nation beyond the ousting of the Taliban, and as the conflict with the Taliban continued for more than a decade. President Biden has faced extreme public opinion and criticism in the United States for failing to successfully end the Afghan War and withdraw US troops. It is still too early to judge how much this criticism will affect the midterm elections in November 2022.

However, we must consider that the critical public opinion is not criticism of the decision to end the Afghan War, but criticism of the negative effects of the process of ending the war and withdrawing troops, that there are still more than 12 months left until the midterm elections, and that the biggest issues in US domestic politics are the economy, COVID-19 prevention, and healing social conflicts. After the end of the war in Afghanistan, will the United States reduce or abandon its security commitments and alliances? In particular, how likely is it that the United States will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula?

Security policy experts and former officials in the U.S. commonly emphasize that the decision to end the war should not be viewed solely as a Biden administration decision. For the past 20 years, the primary theme of U.S. foreign policy has been the war on terror. In focusing on this, the U.S. incurred significant losses in competitiveness, enabled China’s rise, suffered casualties, experienced domestic conflict, and fostered distrust in government. The withdrawal signifies the U.S. stepping out from the shadow of 9/11 and redefining its global leadership and security strategy.

In fact, the withdrawal should be viewed not as Biden’s independent decision but as an implementation of the Trump administration’s 2020 agreement with the Taliban. While President Biden did briefly consider continuing the mission or deploying more troops, he ultimately decided in April to end the war, even moving up the deadline from September 11 to August 31. Biden reportedly believed the war needed to end since visiting Kabul in 2008 as Vice President. As U.S. troops leave, Afghanistan under Taliban rule becomes a potential threat that worries neighboring countries like Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and China. Some analysts predict a widening rift between the U.S. and its allies due to the perceived prioritization of U.S. interests. However, this perspective has flaws. In the 21st century, the main security challenges requiring cooperation are no longer terrorism or the Afghanistan conflict. Instead, global collaboration on non-traditional security issues is more critical than ever. Since taking office, Biden has emphasized new areas of cooperation such as public health, climate change, democracy, advanced technology, and competition with China based on legal and universal values.

In light of these points, the ROK-US alliance and the Republic of Korea have emerged as more valuable security partners to the United States than ever before. The most painful lesson learned by the United States from its defeat in Afghanistan is that no power, including the United States, can build a modern nation from a failed state. The Soviet Union failed, and the United States has failed again, following Vietnam and Iraq. On the other hand, South Korea, which achieved both democracy and economic development, a rare feat in human history, after the Korean War, is the United States’ proudest and most trustworthy partner. Even without the US military stationed in Korea, South Korea is an economic powerhouse with the world’s sixth-strongest military power and a mature democracy. Considering the current military threats from North Korea, China, and Russia, there is no reason for the United States to reduce its military projection on the Korean Peninsula.

Finally, as allies, South Korea and the United States should carefully observe and prepare for North Korea’s attitude toward the US’s end to the war in Afghanistan. The North Korean regime may have underestimated the US’ national power and willingness to use military force after witnessing the US’s defeat. However, the US’s attitude toward North Korea, which possesses advanced nuclear warheads and long-range missiles, cannot be the same as the US’s attitude toward engaging the Taliban in Afghanistan. One dangerous scenario is that the North Korean regime, which seeks to escape economic sanctions against North Korea, fails to properly assess the US’s alertness to the spread of terrorism and the deterioration of the Middle East situation and engages in arms deals or other forms of transactions with international terrorist groups. On August 17, Voice of America reported, citing a report by the Israeli private organization Alma Research and Education Center, that the Lebanese Islamic militant group Hezbollah had built underground tunnels with North Korea’s help. According to the report, North Korea’s Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation, which is subject to UN and US sanctions, signed a contract worth US$13 million with Hezbollah in 2014 and supplied Hezbollah with technology and materials.

This could serve as evidence that North Korea is involved in the armament of terrorist groups that Israel and the United States are seriously concerned about and are responding to resolutely, just as it did in 2007 when the Israeli Air Force secretly destroyed the Osirak nuclear power plant in Syria, and claimed that North Korea was involved in the construction of the nuclear power plant. As a result, there is a risk that the United States' policy toward North Korea will become more hardline, linked to its global anti-terrorism policy, nuclear non-proliferation policy, and Middle East peace policy. South Korea and the United States need to clearly warn North Korea about this dangerous possibility early and through appropriate channels.

By Bong Young Sik (Research Fellow, Institute for Unification Studies, Yonsei University)

● The Issue Brief is written based on the author’s opinion and does not represent the official position of the Yonsei University Institute for Unification Studies or North Korean Review.